AUDJPY: Technical Analysis

Well, my posts are few and far between these days.In case anyone else is still following long here is some good information on the 3hr AUDJPY.We have a nice symmetric triangle going all the way back to November 25th.See?I'm expecting this to break (upward) and then run into a downward sloping resistance line on the 1d AUDJPY. However, we'll have to wait and see. I've been wrong (more than a few

Forex Income Engine 2.0 Review

Bill Poulos' and his Forex Income Engine 2.0 team is currently offering a free video that covers a lot of nice content such as some retracement tricks, how to increase the profits from trades and a lot of other content.I just made a blogpage for Forex Income Engine 2.0 Review.Click on the link to find out what is being offered in the free Video from Forex Income Engine 2.0 Team.

Challenging Times

While I realize the world went through a bit of an unwind, before and after the Dubai incident, I've been busy with work and family issues instead.Things have just been incredibly busy!In any case, what with the volatility and unwinding that has been going on it's probably a good time to be inactive. I did manage to blow up my small discretionary account (my robots are far better traders than I

Forex Swing Trading system - What should be included in any swing trading system?

Forex Swing Trading systems lasts for few hours to sometime few days. Their accuracy is typically high since such systems are based on trading on 1 hr time frame or higher where technical indicators respond very well.A good swing trading system in forex always include -1. A primary indicator which tells if a valid trade setup is about to happen or not2. A confirming indicator to confirm if the

Euro set for a 10% rise against the USD

In the last post we talked about the strengthening in the USD on the basis of interest rates. We suspect the Fed is simply talking up rates and the USD to satisfy the Asian central banks who are getting no interest from their treasuries. The US government of course has to placate these countries because it borrows so much money from them.
Nevertheless in the short term, I'd be looking for US economic weakness to drive the Euro (like the Yen) to the July 2008 high against the USD. We can see in the following chart that the Euro has to rise by another 10% before it reaches that point.
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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com

The USD-JPY poised to strengthen

The Fed has apparently stated that it expects interest rates to rise in future. That is a commonsensical given:

1. The easy monetary policy, both in terms of low interest rates and the credit extended to US and foreign banks through other central banks.
2. The level of US debts, and the governments subdued capacity to raise tax receipts without increases in tax rates

I am still waiting for my energy tax. I suspect the US government is waiting for some resolution to climate change. They are waiting I think for scientists to get some consensus that there is no climate change consensus, before they step in and say, well just to be sure, we'll tax all energy, so in case there is a problem, we'll have our backs covered by spending on health care, etc.

Despite the fact that we are looking at a stronger US in future thanks to higher interest rates, I think we can expect further weakness in the short term. The cause of this is likely to be weaker economic indicators out of the USA. I am expecting the USD to find support against the Yen at its previous 15-year low of 81.6-83.6 yen. Currently the USD is trading at 89.32Yen, so there is room for a further 10% fall in the USD. I think it will be a quick recovery, and it might even be prompted by a global consensus to support the USD.
We must remember that Obama was in Japan, China and Korea last week, and there is every reason to think currency issues were discussed. No doubt those countries were looking for an assurance that the USD would not be allowed to fall, since they have large holdings of US treasuries. The US cannot expect these countries to support the USD unless they are prepared to raise rates. The chart below shows the trading history of the USD-JPY:
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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com

Trading Week Recap

I've been leery of letting BREAD (my primary trading robot) trade too much. I suspect prior tweaks have it taking too much risk. As such I kept it on a short leash and it only earned 0.9% for the week. Perhaps I'll have time to make some adjustments over the weekend.On the discretionary front I was back down to a more reasonable 13% this week. Last week's 34% was probably some type of market

AUDJPY: Ominously Flat

I'm looking at a short term chart, but the lack of volatility suggests that something is in the air.Even with the recent good news from China things have been relatively lethargic.The daily chart is also showing the potential to have a few down days.This seems like a good time to manage risk.UPDATE: This evening, while I was on the road, I see that we had a nice spike upwards, hitting my

AUDJPY: Support Becomes Resistance

My last post showed a profitable overnight setup based on a week long support line on the 1hr chart.Here, I've got an example of a support becoming resistance once it has been violated.Take a look at the following 15min chart:See the violation around 9:00pm last night? As an aside, this was a good point to try a well protected short. Overnight we tested a longer term support line (see my

AUDJPY: Price Alert

Since I'm awake I thought I'd point out a price alert.The AUDJPY currency pair is testing a support line.A long tail break (closing on or above the support line) would still be a bullish sign.Anywhere, here's a recent 1hr chart snip.This is a good place to look for a trade. Good luck.NOTE: See the previous post... it shows the support line valid since November 1st.UPDATE: Upon waking this

AUDJPY Forecast

What the heck, I may as well jump out on a limb and let you know what I'm seeing with the AUDJPY.Basically, if you look at the chart, we've had a good support line since the beginning of November.Now, if I've got the right chart uploaded, take a look below:Personally, I'd suggest taking a long position when the price approaches the support line. You can set a nearby stop and protect yourself

Trading Week Recap

Since the trading robot, BREAD, was predominantly sidelined for the last couple of weeks I felt the need to do more discretionary trading.While the capital used wasn't very large it felt great to pull in a 34% increase over the course of the week. If I could scalp like this all the time it would definitely spell the end of the day job. I have dreams of setting up a trading office with spacious

Da Signals

It takes a lot of fortitude to use them but I think the signals blog is proving itself useful.For example, right now we seem to have established a bottom in the recent AUDJPY downward movement.So, especially under such a condition, we get good results if we see a signal and then look for confirming behavior. Basically, the signals are great lead-ins to a period of analysis.No, they aren't all

Tough Week All Around

With the recent downward move in the AUDJPY my robot has been sidelined. No big deal really but it does point to a possible correlation as I'd noted earlier. After a very good robot week, perhaps with behavior characteristic of a local top and massive robot profit, the market takes a downturn. There are only two data points so far but I'm definitely staying on the lookout for this. Above

Signals Blog Online

Just a short note to let you know that my new signals blog is online. Obviously this is a use at your own risk situation.Robot Price AlertsAnyway, when my robots notice various conditions they will post a message concerning the event in question.The only notice type currently active may identify a situation that will either have a short term AUDJPY price rise offering a scalping opportunity or a

Minor BREAD Adjustments

The BREAD trading robot has had a minor tweak during this last weekend.To make a long story short, another risk modification metric has been defined. If things work as planned this will give the robot the ability to trade over a wider currency pair price move. Obviously, the plan is to simultaneously maintain the same level of profitability.My initial readings on quantitative analysis, via

Quantitative Analysis?

It has been more than a few years since I've had to apply any serious math skills towards my work. However, I have noticed some discussion of quantitative analysis in a few forex forums as well as job listings posted for quants.For a very general introduction to this concept here are some links from Wikipedia:Stochastic calculusItō calculusMonte Carlo option modelStochastic

Robot Trading: Six Weeks In

Things are going well. As you can see BREAD (Basic Robot Earning All Day) is starting to look like a winner. Return Day 0.1900% Sun 13 September 3.2339% Mon 14 3.1616% Tue 15 3.2615% Wed 16 2.1510% Thu 17 0.4442% Fri 18 --------------- 13.05% 0.1850% Sun 20 2.0259% Mon 21 0.9016% Tue 22 1.1536% Wed 23 0.2460% Thu 24 0.1338% Fri 25 ----------

Japanese yen sinks to forecast Y86 level

In May 2009 I made the forecast (see blog post here) that the USD would fall to 86.5 before it would recover. This happened on the 7th October 2009, or near enough. The USD has been in a recovery against the Yen since. I would not be surprised to see the USD-JPY fall back again to this level before it rises. The justification will be primarily stronger interest rates in the US.

The prospect of an increase in energy taxes will also help the country's tax receipts and the terms of trade. I would not however be expecting any great improvement in the USD however....but expect some consolidation. The USD remains technically in its down trend against the Yen.

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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com

Forex Robot Wars: BREAD vs ARTFAB

Two titans of the forex robot trading industry are squaring off in the search for higher profits.In the green corner we have BREAD (Basic Robot Earning All Day) with consistent earnings of approximately 1.2% per day. In the other green corner we have the relatively new ARTFAB (A Rising Tide Floats All Boats) with very promising early results. Already today ARTFAB has locked in over 3.0%

AUDJPY: Market Call

The AUDJPY has done a whole lot of nothing for the last few days.Can you blame it? It must be tired after the recent climb.More seriously, with the RBA considering whether to raise rates another 25 or perhaps even 50 basis points, I don't expect any type of calamitous drop.I think we might see a drop down to 83.00 again but if it does stop in that region I'd consider the range between there and

Possible AUDJPY Reversal Point

I obviously have no guarantees but, according to my own proprietary reversal indicator, this is a potential reversal point.Again, do your own homework, but this is the "signal" I'll be posting to my alerts blog...UPDATE: It's about 9:49pm and the AUDJPY 1hr chart is showing a potential twin tail.UPDATE: It's 10:03pm and here's the 1hr chart right now...And here's the chart from my last post

AUDJPY: October Trend

The AUDJPY has been on an upward trajectory for a while now.There is no telling, at least not in advance, whether we'll see more massive upward movement due to hawkish statements from the RBA or not.However, here is a 3hr chart showing recent movements:Obviously, clear support and resistance helps identify some lower risk entry points.

New Robot Rules Fermenting

It's late Friday night, the markets are closed, and all through the house not a creature is stirring. Well, nobody but the scheming trader hatching up another robotic system.As someone who designs software systems for a living I can assure you that, in terms of making improvements, nothing is more helpful than watching a system in action. The key point here is the concept of "seeing" the results

Meteoric AUDJPY Rise

I'm starting to get more than a little cautious about the stellar increase in the AUDJPY over the last several days.While it's true that markets can continue to move higher or lower for long periods of time it's important not to get too caught up in recent events. In fact, though we all react to these things at different rates, you can consider it a warning whenever there is something to get

Recent Forex Results

I've had some success analyzing the AUDJPY over the last few days. In particular, whether by luck or otherwise I managed to spot some channels, one of them an apparent bull flag, a wedge leading to 82.00 and then predicting a breakthrough beyond that level.It's very rewarding to make an observation and then have results conform to your expectations.Anyway, I'm still letting my robot do my

AUDJPY: Possible Bull Flag

My last post focused on a short term channel.This time I'm looking at a longer term trend -- though still on the 1hr AUDJPY chart. This one looks like it might be a bull flag.It's always hard to tell. However, with future interest rate hikes expected, it's likely we'll continue our upward movement if signs of an Australian recovery remain strong.Here's the chart:Play safe.UPDATE: It's 7:00am

AUDJPY: Channel on the 1hr

There's a channel on the AUDJPY 1hr chart.For as long as the channel decides to last we have an opportunity at either the top or bottom levels.Notice it going back and forth?This is perfect for my custom trading robot...Unfortunately, predictability never lasts.Well, that was nice. It's about an hour and half later... see the bounce? Click the image to get a larger version...Are we going to

AUDJPY: 3hr A/D Trend

Here's a snip showing the accumulation distribution on the AUDJPY since the 2nd of October.The recent test of the support line happened today near 2:30pm. Obviously, the fact that the RBA appears to be ready to continue a series of interest rate hikes appears to be driving this.I'm looking for this line to break.UPDATE: It's just after 6:30pm and I figured it might be nice to get a larger look

Robot Upgrades: Preliminary Results

On weekends I like to either tweak existing robots or create new ones. While it's very early in the process I think the most recent tweaks are going to have a noticeable positive effect.I woke up around 4:00am this morning and thought I'd check on the computer. What did I see? A nice AUDJPY move from 81.10 to 81.50 for now. Anyhow, this weekend's tweaks were operating on the dip and return.

BREAD's Trading Results

Yes, for lack of a better name I am calling my robot BREAD. This is short for Basic Robot Earning All Day. It has been given minor tweaks from time to time but it still continues to follow the same system and strategy... taking advantage of constant price oscillations in the AUDJPY. While the results don't look all that spectacular I invite you to investigate how this ends up in a compound

Skeptical About The AUDJPY?

I'm sorry you feel that way. Perhaps after looking at the following chart snip you'll think that you may have missed the boat.See how the daily chart shows solid support since March? March! Hello, it's a little too late to be skeptical. The question you have to ask yourself is why has the AUDJPY been performing so well and how long will it continue to do so.On another note, I'm going to start

Beating The AUD Drum

Did anyone notice this AUD tidbit?Unemployment fell to 5.7% from 6.0% against expectations of no change. The extremely strong job number will cement expectations that the RBA will continue to hike rates and perhaps be more aggressive in doing so.If you been following my blog this isn't going to be a surprise.As my last post said... buy on dips.

Buy AUDJPY On Dips?

It's very plausible that the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) has started the slow process of moving interest rates from emergency levels to normal.RBA Starts Rate RisesWe'll want to see what happens over the next couple of months in order to confirm this analysis. However, from now on whenever the markets are panicked about the latest downward surprise, it might be time to dip your toes in.We're

US Economy Heads Up

If you are wondering what is going on with the US economy, this puzzle piece from CNBC will fit in very nicely.Dunkelberg: You Can't See Main Street From Wall StreetWhat this is saying is that there probably is not a small business collapse in the works due to credit issues. Smaller businesses will simply wait until they see consumer spending before they bother to access credit.Personally, I am

Robot Strategy / Development

Without getting into detailed specifics I thought I'd try to answer a recent question about the strategies I'm trying with my various robots.First, a bit of background in case this is the first post you see on this blog:I design software and systems for a livingI've been trading for years -- learning through the heart of the downturn.With that out of the way I'd suggest looking at one of my posts

AUDJPY Roller Coaster

Generally, I follow and prefer to trade the AUDJPY. It goes through unwinds from time to time as the bigger players suffer fits of risk aversion.For the last few weeks we've been bouncing back and forth between 77 and 80. On the way down, with all the gloom and doom blaring in the media, it feels like we must be about to fall off a cliff.It's difficult not to be scared. After all, anyone who

Forex Robot Mania

As suggested in my last post...As a side note, I'm planning to make opposing robots this weekend. They will trade long and short positions in different sub-accounts.I've put together yet another robot. It will trade the same currency both long and short in separate sub-accounts. I'll have to wait until Monday or Tuesday to activate it.A few points I feel are worth mentioning:I've been developing

Friday Market Analysis

I am following CNBC regularly (via their web site) these days. I see many of the pundits advocating panic and doom. I suspect they all want to be able to claim they were right when we finally do experience some type of pullback.However, these braying naysayers of doom really don't have much of import to say. All they really do is act as large forces on the emotions of market players. Everyone

Thursday Robot Recap

Thursday was a very slow day.The market was down. The yen crosses took a dive. Everyone is getting antsy about stocks, news reports, and the month of September. OMG, the risk! My robot snoozed for much of the day and had little chance to earn anything useful.However, amidst all the whining I have to realize that being up about 4.5% for the week isn't so bad.Regardless, I did tweak things a

Wednesday Status

Wednesday was a slow day.The AUDJPY was very quiet, which left little opportunity for my robot to extract revenue. In fact, with the DOW drop at the end of the trading day today we may be looking at a bit of a downward correction over the next little while.My robot is not very active during downward movements. So, I'll get bored, worry about long term profitability, and otherwise be motivated

Monday Robot Review

If you are a new visitor I should let you know I'm reviewing my own proprietary forex robot -- I'm not providing a general review of robots.The GoodProfitability continues. Sunday evening the robot earned 0.2% and over the course of Monday it earned 2.0% return. It's not obvious, but when capital is added to the robot old smaller positions provide less return when closed profitably. This means

Weekend Robot Development II

While not fully tested, as the market isn't open for trading, I have also completed both the meta-robot concept and a notification system.The meta-robot will look at the trades made via the current profitable robot and impose rules that require trades to open at a better price. The required difference, in pips, will be divided in two and added to the meta-robot's take profit point. For example,

Weekend Robot Development

Now that the weekend is here it's time to put on the thinking cap and figure out how to increase earnings, reduce risk or both.As mentioned in a reply to a comment on the previous post I've reallocated funds, put in a reserve amount and added a manual release amount.The reserve amount holds back capital from the lot size calculation and the total margin available calculation. This capital is

Forex Robot Wars

As you can see by my last few posts I've had a couple of trading robots slugging it out for the last few days.I'm happy to announce that the latest robot has absolutely thrashed my initial robot. Here are the recent earnings for this week:Sun 0.19%Mon 3.23%Tue 3.16%Wed 3.26%Obviously, I'm going to retire the previous robot, which earned at an average pace of approximately 0.5% per day, and

Two Live Robots

Sunday evening I unleashed another trading robot. Here's how I set up my sub-accounts to do this in a reasonably safe manner.My initial or primary account is used to add or remove funds.Each robot trades in it's own sub-accountThis let's me track the returns for each robot in a trivial manner. It also means that each robot is 100% independent. If you do this be sure to name your sub-accounts

Oanda Robot Trading -- Cost Efficiently

If you are trading with Oanda, as I am, you are probably aware that you have to trade a fair amount before their monthly API fees are waived.However, there is an alternative. The first time I tried their platform, probably shortly after it was released, I didn't find it very inviting. However, about a month ago I tried again. Guess what? While I might not use the platform for discretionary

The USD set for further weakness

I'd be willing to bet that the USD is set for further falls against the Japanese yen in the coming months. All that Fed pump-priming has placed solid support under the stock market, no doubt raising confidence in the business-end of the US market. The problem of course is the continuing rise in unemployment and the decline in retail sales. We might ask whether the market is anticipating a recovery, or some sustainability in the equities market. I think there is little prospect of that. The USD and equities are likely to weaken, however it will not be a total collapse since there is no significant inflation in the market yet, and a little bit of inflation works wonders for balance sheets.

For the reasons above, I am expecting the USD to fall back to 87 yen over the next 6 months, thereafter I would expect to see some strengthening in the USD as property prices are perceived to have bottomed, and interest rates are raised to boost savings. Expect energy taxes in the US at this point to improve the US budget deficit. The weak USD will of course help offset the 'below the line' deterioration in US export competitiveness. At this point I don't see a fall to the Y80 mark, as occurred a number of years ago (see earlier posts), though I leave an open mind on this point. A short-lived fall to Y80 is possible. I actually don't regard this correction (recession) as an end to the bull market. I think the derivatives market will take the global economy to new highs until the derivatives market ultimately collapses in 10-15 odd years. The recovery will affirm the positive thinkers that their management was always good. The regulation that you might perceive today is really just perception-based. Regulation in future will be no better than in the past. Companies will get away with dubious disclosure.
There are a great many people expecting tragedy from the US market. Basically I don't see that. The US is one of the freest and most dynamic countries in the world. So as long as that is true, and it could be a great deal freer, then it will continue to trump the EU and Japan. It will do what needs to be done. Savings will need to be boosted as occurred under Clinton, to correct the imbalance left by Reagan. Most of the US imbalance was corrected just by the collapse in spending.
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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com

Robot Trading

I'm finally trading my own proprietary forex robot.The best part is that I have the sound of money chiming on my computer at work every time I have a position closed due to reaching it's take profit price.Anyway, no, I have no other hype to push.What I do have is the power of the robot mind to watch the market 24 hours a day. What do I mean? I mean that as long as my computer stays on and

Recent Forex Efforts

Since the recent yen cross meltdown started I've been trying to keep from getting caught on the wrong side of any massive downward moves.As I generally trade only the AUDJPY, mostly on the long side, things have been pretty quiet!However, we are now facing some resistance at 74.50 on the 1hr -- which should be illustrative. We have done what might be a triple bounce off of support in the

Monster Scalps With AUDJPY

I've been shamelessly scalping the AUDJPY this week (via Oanda). It may be hard to fathom, at least when you see the numbers, but I'm not entirely happy with my results.Jun 28: 00.28% NAV+Jun 29: 06.65% NAV+Jun 30: 11.66% NAV+So far this week, if I can hang onto it, I'm up over 19% on my trading account.Now, you may be wondering why I'm not satisfied with my trading. Basically, I've made too

Alert: AUDJPY Head And Shoulders?

I've spent most of today scalping the AUDJPY (on the long side).Jumping up to my 3hr and 4hr charts, as I have two platforms running, I see an upside down head and shoulders.You may want to take a look at this and see what you think.

Back From A Trading Break

Well, it's been a while since I posted. Things have been hectic, but I did just take a short vacation. No running water. No cell phones. No internet. No trading. There were, however, lakes and fish.I think I'm ready to do some serious speculation at this point... as long as the market behaves.Hopefully I'll soon be posting and tweeting up a storm!We'll see.

AUD set for weaker outlook

Australia has had a strong recover over the last 6 months, rising from 62c to 82c to the USD. In the next 6 months I would not be surprised to see the currency come off. There are of course some positives:

1. Some recovery in commodity prices
2. Government stimulated economic activity
3. Residual mining & energy investment
4. Continued weakness in property

The negatives are:

1. Decline in bulk commodity prices - priced annually based on Apr price fixtures for iron ore

2. Rising public deficit

For these reasons I believe the Australian dollar will pull back to 73c, but probably not before rising to 85c. Clearly the justification for a stronger AUD will be a weaker than expected USD. I don't expect this. I believe the US is looking at higher interest rates to boost savings, and higher energy taxes. I believe global warming will provide the justification for a carbon tax, but in this national emergency the proceeds will be spent on anything but the environment. In fact, the whole idea of artificially stimulating economic activity is contrary to stopping global warming. So I am expecting some Clinton-like austerity measures which will be strong on US interest rates, so a strong USD. So I'm expecting a 73c medium term target for AUD-USD.

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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com

Long Term Carry Trade Fundamentals

While reading a recent CNBC article about current events something clicked for me.Here is the passage:The dollar rose broadly on Thursday as yields on 10-year U.S. government bonds jumped more than 50 basis points in the last two weeks, drawing Japanese investors into overseas assets like global semi-conductor stocks, banks and U.S. junk bonds, according to Reuters.Do you remember the massive

Twitter Forex Tweet Strategy

Have you been following people involved in fx trading on twitter?Have you noticed how many people are happy to tell you what happened? While macroeconomic news and previous day post analysis can be useful, it certainly doesn't help you make a trading decision based on current charts. I have a little proposal to make.Instead of tweeting that you've opened a long or short position provide some

Forex Tips - Microtrading

The AUDJPY currency pair is currently trading around the 76.00 mark.Over the last twenty days, from May 7 through May 27, I've been experimenting with a concept I've been calling microtrading.I don't intend to close all of my positions at the moment, but if I did my account NAV would increase by more than 10% over that period.While I realize that active trading can return spectacular results

FX Trading And Analysis

I've become a little frustrated with most of news sources out there. If you've been an active forex trader for any length of time you'll notice that talking heads are always trying to tell you why something happened.That's really nice, and might possibly help you learn about various financial interactions, but it's absolutely useless from a trading point of view. If you are trading you need to

Learn forex candlesticks - How forex candlestick can make you better in technical analysis?

Forex Candlesticks are one of the most popular technical indicators in the forex market. I am a big fan of candlesticks.When used correctly, candles can help you precisely understand what can happen next so you can decide whether you want to open a trade or you want to exit an open trade.I have seen a lot of trades that I should have closed early, but I just ignored the warning signs given by the

Microtrading: Decent Returns?

I blogged about this idea not too long ago. The concept is to use very small trades relative to your available margin and net asset value (NAV). I'm doing this with the AUDJPY pair so that when I accumulate positions I am earning a positive carry trade return.My trade size over the last week has been such that the margin involved in each trade is 0.2% of my NAV. That's tiny. Twenty five

LMT Forex Formula Review - Have you heard about lmtforexformula?

LMT Forex Formula Review - Have your heard about this new product from Dean Saunders? If not, let me tell you more about it -1. It is a system to trade on daily time frame - and so its accuracy is very high. The reason being the higher the timeframe, the more reliable and more accurate the trading signals are. I mean, have you noticed how much whipshaw is on a 5 min chart and how reliable are

EUR to reach 1.45

The EUR is probably likely to go higher against the USD, but I would wait for confirmation of that trend because there is still more scope on the downside. I am however expecting the EUR to reach 1.45 in the next month.

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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com

USD-JPY looks like falling to 86.50 yen

The USD technically looks like weakening. The head & shoulders pattern is indicated. There will be two points you can look for - a breach of the uptrend, and a confirming break of the 95.75 support level.
You might have expected a Clinton-like response from Obama on policy. But given the capacity of higher interest rates to undermine the housing sector, you can expect taxes on energy and the wealthy.
There is a meeting of countries in Copenhagen in Oct'09. I think that they will conclude that an agreement on Climate Change is too hard, so why don't we just tax energy heavily, reduce our reliance on the Middle East, raise a lot of money from discretionary spenders, give food vouchers to the poor, and just think deep thoughts about climate change. It was always only a facade to bring in a more comprehensive energy tax. Goerge was against it since it would have undermined his share price for Halliburton, but Obama fear not for the environment. That ought to raise a lot of tax as well, and I think America just might see a 'green is good' religious conversion as well. I am expecting they will annoint a 'green god' in the likeness of Obama.

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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com

Forex Nitty Gritty Review - Know more about Forex NittyGritty

Forex Nitty Gritty Review - This is a new product from Bill and Gregg Poulous. Bill is a known and experienced trader who always comes up with top notch products. This one also is ana amzing product.But unlike his previous products, this one is pretty cheap, but still is of high quality.Let me 1st tell you what all is included in Forex Nitty Gritty -1. Step by step forex trading videos that

Theory: Trading With Little To No Margin

As I often do, especially when the markets are excruciatingly slow in determining when to make the next significant move, I've been thinking about Forex.Take a mental walk with me...The DOW falls from 10,000 to 5,0000 and loses 50% of it's value. It returns from 5,000 to 10,000 and gains 100% of it's value.Wait, think about that for a minute. In the normal world having the ability to gain

MT4 EA: Average Position Based Trading

While I don't have any pictures to show, yet, I am working on an EA that trades AUDJPY based on the market price relative to the average price of positions held.The first few passes at this type of system were pitiful. My testing starts from September of last year to now while only opening long positions. As you can imagine this is a difficult period of time for a long only system!However, late

Theory: Gridding Microtrades

I've been thinking about grid based strategies designed to take advantage of volatility without incurring great risk.The idea is that the strategy be followed using a carry trade pair in the event that you do inevitably end up holding some positions. You'll want a platform with a decent spread. Oanda often has about a 3.0 pip spread on the AUDJPY pair -- my current pair of choice.So, let's

Oanda FXTrade On Ubuntu Dell Mini 12

Okay, it's working.I have Oanda running a single FXTrade window while I'm open in another browser typing this blog post.Here is what I did to get this working:Close down extra charts -- only the basic platform window is running.Eliminate extra currency pairs -- only follow two or three active pairsShrink the window -- show everything but in as small a footprint as it practical.With these steps I

Dell Mini 12 -- Ubuntu

I recently bought the Dell Mini 12 thinking it would be noiseless, so that I could leave it on overnight while I slept. I tend to wake up from time to time so that would be an easy way to check for Forex opportunities during the night.Unfortunately, running the Oanda FxTrade application causes the system to grind to a halt. Right now my profile automatically opens multiple charts (1 min, 15 min

MT4 EA: Stupid Programming Mistakes

Well, I spent last evening tracking down some problems in my next foray into programming expert advisers.It turns our that a simple logical test was using an '&' instead of an '&&' between two terms.This little horseshoe nail caused some position closing attempts to fail with an error 138 -- meaning that the price being used to close the position was too far away from the market price.I also ran

MT4 EA: Moving Towards Sustainability

Yesterday's experiments with creating an expert advisor to scalp the 5 minute chart show great profits and great risk.I've been working to reduce the level of risk without taking away the reasonable chance of making reasonable profits.Here is the most recent chart:This is running from 01-Feb-2009 to 25-Apr-2009 and obviously surviving any ups and downs during that period.I'm still not happy with

MT4 EA: Aggresive 5 Minute Scalper

Well, it's the weekend, what else is a grown man to do?I had an inspiration for an (overly) aggressive expert advisor today. Basically, it's a simple buy low and sell high machine using oscillators.Scope out the chart. It does fairly well for a period of time and then when the market finds it's achilles heel it is undone.All is not lost. I have some ideas for improving the aggression factor as

GBPUSD: A Drunken Sailor

The cable, as the GBPUSD is called, looks like drunken sailor.The chart is all over the map, with massive daily swings lined up one after the other all over the place.There are some pips to be made in there!I'm not generally trading the GBPUSD, but I'm going to put a few moments into figuring out whether my AUDJPY chart set up seems applicable.It's hard to resist all that volatility.

AUDJPY: Tweezer Top?

The market has about 6 minutes to change it's mind.If it doesn't, this is going to look like a tweezer top on the 1 hour.Now, that would be something I'd consider bearish (I originally typed bullish).If you read my last post... you know I'd like that to happen!Now about 4 minutes left.Zzzz. No market reaction on the hour.Maybe the tails weren't long enough -- or I'm too impatient?... continuing .

AUDJPY: Short On Failure?

It might be time to think about shorting the AUDJPY.It's coming up to a recent high and might not have a lot of legs left.If we get a decent failure there could be a shorting opportunity for some part of this evening.See (on the 1 hour)?Let's keep an eye on this...... continuing ...Down on the 1 minute chart we seem to have some resistance to get through before we have the ability to drop:...

AUDJPY: Morning Peek

Well, first, I can't believe I'm awake this early after such a long night. I need to hone my craft and trade for a living -- I'd be able to keep better hours.Anyway, this morning we have the follow up to last nights analysis.We're looking at what appears to be a double bottom with no idea whether or not we'll reap the technical rewards that they can offer.Since I slept through the last several

AUDJPY: Look Who's Consolidating

Well, I should be sleeping, but since I'm not I thought I'd take another look at the charts.Guess what -- it's the same chart but I see something new!Okay, sure, a bit more time has passed. However, with the added points I clearly see that we seem to be consolidating.There should be some money to be made while we bounce around... and then some money to be made when a direction is chosen.As ever,

AUDJPY: Did We Bounce?

My last blog post, audjpy decision point, talked about an upcoming decision point. At the moment it looks like we are going to begin an upward leg.I'm feeling particularly cautious at the moment, especially since this is only on the 15 minute chart, but I thought I'd post it.Notice the last candlestick:As I'm long term bullish on AUDJPY let's hope this is the beginning, or perhaps resumption, of

AUDJPY: Decision Point

I'm looking at the 3HR chart at the moment. We seem to be looking at an impending strike on a recent support line.If this resistance holds we might have a technical setup that would allow for a nice gain.Take a look:See how there was something of a W shape starting in the middle of the 19th? See how the chart is currently on the second touch down of a second W? If we bounce off the support line

AUDJPY: Waiting For The Trend To Break

I often think that evening trading goes through a period of doldrums. It gets boring. Things move slowly, if at all. Ten pips gain or loss can take an hour or more to happen.Zzzz.At the moment, as you can see by the chart below, I'm waiting for the current trendlet to break:This is a 1MIN chart, hence the "trendlet" concept.

AUDJPY: Decision Point

After the downward move, see the last post, we are now poised to either bounce off the previous low or sink down.In other words, either result provides opportunity.Here's another snap of the 1MIN showing the AUDJPY bouncing just above the recent low of 68.06 (as shown by the yellow support lines drawn under the candlesticks).Take a look, make your call, set a good stop if you know how......

AUDJPY: The Bounce At 68.06

I was watching the AUDJPY as it slid downward today.As you might expect it was following a nice trend on the way down. It's currently following a nice trend line on the way up too.Here's a 1MIN chart showing the upward movement from the 68.06 bounce.I don't really place a lot of stock (heh, bad pun) in the 1MIN but it's interesting nonetheless.... continuing ...This is getting more interesting:A

Forex Analysis Post-Review

Well, did anyone notice what happened based on the forex analysis I posted over the weekend.The EURUSD, posted here, indeed moved upwards a bit before resuming it's downtrend.The AUDJPY, posted here, with a followup here, broke it's support line and henceforth fell like a stone.Nice. While I obviously am not able to say which way it will go in advance, it seems I was able to pinpoint the action

AUDJPY: Breaking Trend?

Though I'm a bit leery of Sunday price action it looks like a fairly long term support line is being broken.This could be interesting.... continuing ...Looking closer, this may not yet be a break, as there have been previous "breaks" which gives us a bit of leeway here. A redraw based on a previous "break" leaves a bit of breathing room still.... continuing ...Waking up at 5:30am I see that

AUDJPY: Weekend Analysis

If you've been following along you'll notice that I keep mentioning that I am long term bullish on the AUDJPY.One of the reasons is that I think we've seen the worst of the panic and risk aversion. Another reason is that I think we're now closer to a recovery and following period of economic expansion than a lot of people expect.Given these two thoughts, and the following chart, it's easy to see

EURUSD: Weekend Analysis

I don't generally trade the EURUSD but since it's the weekend I seem to have some extra time on my hands.Here are a series of charts, in varying timeframes, that I'd use to get a general feel for this currency pair.First, let's look at the 1D chart to see what's happened over the long term. I've compressed the chart a fair amount in order to get it to fit into a single snapshot -- you should be

AUDJPY: Weekend Recap

I don't really have anything new to add since Forex markets are closed for the weekend.We are still constrained within what appears to be a consolidation pattern. We are approaching the end of the pattern and the bollinger bands on my 1hr chart are collapsing.I've also got a nifty new screen snipping tool that I wanted to try out... ;)While I do remain long term bullish there is a lot of noise

AUDJPY: Collapsing Bollinger

The range of price movements has been shrinking.Or, as generally considered from a technical analysis point of view, the bollinger bands are collapsing.Your guess is as good as mine as to the direction it will go, but usually when the bollinger bands collapse the currency will have completed it's consolidation and start a reasonable move up or down.Given that it's a Friday I'd have to say be

AUDJPY: Now What?

Well, we didn't really do much at all yesterday after bouncing off of a support line a couple of times.What does this mean?This means that the AUDJPY currency pair isn't currently behaving in a way that makes it easy to interpret. This means that we need to be careful.I have no idea what the market will do... except that it will either go up or down at some point.

AUDJPY: Some Upward Movement

Finally, after suggesting all day long that I'm looking for upward movement it's finally here.How long will it last? Who knows. Will it hit the top of my so-called consolidation zone? Don't know.Anyway, here's the latest from my chart...I'll be happiest if the pair zooms up like a rocket, but I'll lock in some profit if we get close to the resistance line.

AUDJPY: Still In Consolidation Range

I didn't have time to post another update during the day, but things have been pretty slow anyway.Here you can see that the AUDJPY has not yet broken out of the trend lines (that I have shown in early charts).I'm not sure what is going to happen during the Asian session, but as ever, I'm hoping for some bullish action.I'm sure you can see the market honoring the trend line by bouncing off it?

AUDJPY: Slow Decline

I'm sitting here watching the slow, achingly slow, decline in the AUDJPY.Based on RSI and stochastic evidence, not shown on the image below, it's very possible that we'll get an upturn soon.Anyway, this image shows you that we are continuing to approach what I've called a containment field. It represents a possible consolidation zone while the market tries to figure out whether to ultimately

AUDJPY: Don't Cross The Streams!

It looks like we are going to test the containment of the possible AUDJPY consolidation zone I mentioned previously.Frankly, I had expected the market to hold up better to the news concerning jobs and housing, but then, if I could accurately predict what would happen I wouldn't be speculating would I?In any case, if we get an upward bounce around 70.75 - 70.85 then we are still in what I consider

AUDJPY: Risk Aversion

It's likely, with the bad jobs and housing starts news this morning, that risk aversion will come into play.Basically, the AUDJPY is a good indicator of fear in the markets these days.With all that said, I'm still going to watch closely for a bounce of the potential support line. That is likely to be the point that the market decides to rally or collapse for the day.... continuing ... I don't

AUDJPY: Possible Consolidation?

It's nearly 9:00am EST and we didn't drop low enough to get a real double bottom. We may have begun a consolidation process between 73.50 and 70.25 while the market figures out whether the next move is up or down.We'll have to see whether we continue to have lower highs and higher lows.If we are consolidating, then it's not hard to spot the support and resistance lines that will be likely to

AUDJPY: Long Entry Decision

I've been having some success calling the shots on the AUDJPY charts.This morning we've been having a correction from yesterday's highs. While I've been hearing scuttlebutt on twitter concerning shorting the carry trades, I remain upward biased.My view, the current drop in price is setting us up for a possible double bottom or simply a W shaped chart. Simultaneously, I do see some stochastic and

AUDJPY: Rebound

Sweet. I've got a support line around ~70.60 that is approximately where the market bounced back into upward movement.If you follow my ramblings on Twitter you'll see me making noises about a rebound in the works... and it came about while I was asleep.It's a very good feeling to have the market respect your charts and signals. Too bad it doesn't happen all that often.No time to look into

AUDJPY: Risk vs Opportunity

Today we see the crux of the issue.The AUDJPY has suffered a pullback. A return to recent highs gives us the possibility of a double top. A bounce off the recent low gives us the possibility of the a double bottom. There may be more complex structures at play as well, but you get the idea.This is risk point. This is an opportunity point.If you get in, say with a long position right now, you

AUDJPY: Forex Recap

It was a good day to be long AUDJPY.We're in a bit of a pullback right now. Obviously, this is either a great time to get in or it's the start of a downturn.That's how it works!I'm willing to take a nibble...

Bullish on AUDJPY

At the moment things are looking bullish for the AUDJPY.I popped in another small position a few moments ago and so far it's been north from there. If things turn around I'll wait for a good low and then play the game where I replace higher longs with lower longs.Obviously, though I don't expect another huge currency collapse, I'll still have to play it cautiously. You never can tell what might

Poised For The Pop

As I mentioned a couple of days ago, I have been working on sinking some smaller positions while the AUDJPY was going sideways (or suffering a slow decline).Today is the day that this bears fruit. Trading lower positions for higher positions now has me with some sunk positions that I can unload at a decent profit as the AUDJPY continues to spike.

Was That My Correction?

A few days ago I was saying that perhaps the AUDJPY would pull back after it's very fast rise up into the 71.xx range.It continued rising to somewhere around 72.80 instead. However, early last night it was bumping down around the 70.00 mark. Was that my correction?My three hour (I trade with Oanda) shows leg room all the way to 68.xx if it's thinking about correcting.That's the trick with Forex

Riding the AUDJPY Sideways

So, it looks like we've had several days of sideways motion on the charts. I don't mind at all.As long as you buy on the low end and sell on the high end these are good times to play in the market too.For periods of non-trending action I like to watch the stochastic and RSI indicators. The stochastic are reasonable but they do give a ton of false signals. The RSI can help corroborate their

AUDJPY Popped To 72.30

Though I had expected a downturn before the pop... the long flat period today in the 71.xx range clued me in to a possible spike.When the 15 min bollinger bands tightened up and the price popped above it, the clinch was in.I hopped on with a couple tiny positions, nearly instantly protected by stop losses, and grabbed a few pips on the spike.Now the question is, will the uptrend continue or will

Catching The Run To 71.00

Did you ride the recent run in the AUDJPY to 71?I was lucky enough to grab and hold a chunk at 65.62 and I'm pondering whether or not I want to let it go.We've just had a double top on the 15 minute chart. The 1 hour is oversold. I think we are going to get some bounces upward due to exuberance, but it seems about time for a pullback.I've sold off the nibbles I also acquired on the way up. I

The Yen set to strength against USD

After the recent rally in the USD I would be looking for some weakness. The market is due for some bad news. My bet is that the bad news over the next few months is going to be the 2nd stage of the property crisis. Stage 1 was the sub-prime mess, and next we are about to move into a succession of ARM-reset initiated foreclosures. This will kill any confidence inspired by the recent rally in equity markets. I would also suggest that it will also likely prompt the Fed to bail the US government out of another truck load of debt.
Anyway, this chart structure is telling me that there is considerable (6-point) resistance to a stronger USD, so on this occasion I sold USD-JPY. The target price is around 94.60.

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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com

Last Week's Results

I can hardly believe it myself, but last week my NAV gains totaled 97.5%, which is entirely incredible. Too bad I'm such a small participant.No, unfortunately, this had nothing to do with my recent forays into developing an expert advisor. It seems that I've stumbled across some charting factors that provide me some measure of insight into market movements.The market doesn't always behave, but

AUD and NZD appear consolidating

The Australian (AUD) and New Zealand dollars (NZD) have recovered against the USD from their lows over the last week. There is more upside, but I would not expect it to last. There is really no basis for celebration in the coming months, so I would expect a series of short term rallies. The idea that low interest rates can stimulate the NZ and Australian economies is really false advertising. Since when is the answer to excess debt more debt. We will instead see more printing money, but give it time. In the meantime, its denial.
A stronger outlook for these economies can be expected when we see a recovery in food prices. Basically the problem with these two countries is that we need to see a lot of deleveraging. So we are not going to see a lot of spending by the private sector. Expect government public works. The farm sectors will fare the best, but they are just a smart part of the economy, but they will help the external account for both economies.
The NZD and AUD are likely to consolidate for a while. The John Keys Conservative government is saying the right things so I would expect foreign markets to be supportive of his government.

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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com

Sample MQ4 Code

Here is a bit of code that demonstrates what I've been blogging about. It's a simple way to manage pending position requests. The idea is that a signal his been raised but that this code will let you wait for an improvement in the price before actually opening a position.// *******************************************************************// Name: AMS_PEND.MQ4// Date: 01-Mar-2009// Prog: Rookie

Expert Adviser Weekend

Finally, the weekend is almost here. I've been stealing a few moments here and there during the week but it's not that productive.Basically, I've limited myself to testing various "opening" strategies. What I've found is that I can increase earnings across the test set -- but generally at the expense of a bigger draw down. I'd like to come up with a system that tests out a tripling of the

EA Development by Component

Okay, I've got a few EA components under my belt now.First, I've made myself a trivial system to determine potential entry points. Basically, this system raises a signal when the price is above or below a moving average for some period of time and then crosses over. Remember, I'm only concerned about making an easy to manage framework at this point.Second, signals raised above are tossed into a

NZD outlook presents good investment prospects

The NZD is languishing at new lows of 49.5c to the USD. The question is - will it fall further to 40c, the hostoric low last reached in 2003 if I am not mistaken. At that time NZ was battling a bad current account deficit, much like today, and like today it was contending with a low commodity price outlook. In this context, one might expect the NZD to fall to 40c. The problem I have with this scenario is the weak outlook for the US economy. I am thinking we can expect a lot of monetary inflation in the US, but we might also expect some taxes on the rich and an energy tax. We need to remember that any slowdown is going to demand the government to raise taxes since Bush was engaged in tax reductions, now we are looking at tax increases.

The weak NZD is going to be a saviour for the NZ economy, and the prospect of NZ expatriates returning from abroad cashed up from offshore earnings is going to offer a stimulus of its own. I suspect a few Europeans and Americans might also be considering retirement in NZ, and some families will be changing their priorities, and deciding emigrating to NZ means more times for the kids. These are the dynamics which move a small nation like NZ. Falling NZ interest rates however suggest that we might just see the NZD move to 40c. As per normal, we should watch the market for some direction. Certainly the falls in equities are reason to think the NZD is not going to be a growth currency for some time. But perhaps you might consider buying property in NZ at this time. Economic malaise creates the best possible setting for contrarian investments. You can buy a house in NZ for as little as $NZ68,000 (USD35,000). This is a natural move for retirees, intellectuals, programmers and international explorers. In 5 years you will be able to sell any property investment at a higher exchange rate. More info here. Chart updates from Yahoo Finance.

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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com

EA Development

I was able to put some serious effort into developing an expert adviser over the weekend. At this stage I believe I can build something that will be both relatively safe and profitable. This is not an easy task!Anyway, I do want to assure you that I have no intention of ever selling an EA. If it works I'll use it for myself. If it doesn't work, then I'd have nothing worth selling in any case.

Programming An EA

I'm finding it takes a lot more time to program an EA than I would expect. Alternately, perhaps I am dumb enough to think that I could just throw together some ideas and have a profit machine?Anyway, after another night of testing I have some new software that is able to detect or indicate various conditions.I'm hoping that doing enough visual testing will clue me in enough, personally, to the

MT4 - Moving Average Crossover

Believe it or not I think I'm going to use a simple moving average crossover as a signal for my automated trading system.Obviously, and testing verifies this, there are two issues to manage:1) Getting whipsawed.2) Entering the trend too late.I believe that I can at least alleviate these issues somewhat. Technical indicators can provide clues about whether or not the market is currently trending

Ongoing MT4 Development

As I develop and test more expert advisers I see just how tricky it is to translate common sense into a series of hard and fast rules.In short, my adviser does stupid things!When I trade Forex on my own I'll combine a "feel" for the current situation along with some technical indicators. For example, in recent times, if something funny is going on, then the market I'm trading almost always takes

MT4 Programming

I love the fact that I can program the MT4 system. However, wouldn't it be nice if there was documentation in English? Well, yes, there is some, but it obviously wasn't written by somebody who speaks it fluently.Anyway, I spent much of the weekend fooling around with some custom expert advisers. One or two had promise, but obviously if it was easy to do then everyone would be doing it. It

Automated Forex Trading Robot

I've signed up for a second account. This one is at a broker that uses a dealing desk and an MT4 based trading platform.Why?Because I write software for a living. Because I sometimes have a decided lack of discipline. Because my life is stressful and I don't need to be glued to my screen worrying about charts, margins and limits.No, really, it's because I'd like to think that I can create a

AUD and NZD range trading at best

The AUD and NZD are likely to range trade for the next month, as the focus is on the EUR trade. There is still some play in the Yen, as it falls to the Y83-85 on weaker economic news out of the USA. We are going to see a weaker USD, and that I don't see adding either weakness or strength to the AUD or NZD. I would nevertheless expect a volatile AUD trading between 58c and 70c.

The NZD is likely to trade between 50c and 60c. I don't see any reason for a fall at this point to its historical level of 40c in the short term, though I can see that as a possibility in the longer term. The John Keys government is shaping up as a disappointment. A swear the guy is the illegitimate child of John Howard the way he is running policy at the moment. He must have been stillborn for the last 2 decades because he has learnt nothing, and he is fully against the trend. Counter-cyclical or just stupid? You be the judge.

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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com

The USD set to plummet!

The USD is set to plummet against a number of currencies. You might be thus wondering where to place your money. Against the gain currencies I would suggest the EURO offers the better opportunity. Some months ago I forecast the Yen falling to Y85. As you can see that move is almost complete, with the USD currently trading around Y90. At the time I attracted considerable criticism for this forecast. I would however expect the EUR-USD to offer far better trading however in the next 6 months.
The question is - Can we expect the USD to break Y83? I think if this were to occur we could be looking at the end of the USD as the international base currency. The question is - what would replace it? Clearly its not going to be the dysfunctional EUR, the distrusted Yuan, the disenfranchised Yen, and what of the worthless USD? Well, the implication is clear, its the USD or its a new global currency. Is it possible that the US debt profligacy was nothing more than a political statement by the US government. Was the US government thumbing its noses at mercantilist Japan and China and saying, SCREW YOU. By all means hold our USD debts as we are going to dilute the value of them. This is interesting times because we are looking at a global emergency, which can provide the justification for a strong USD (higher interest rates) or a new international currency. I would expect Obama to support higher interest rates in the spirit of former President Clinton. But then maybe he wants to distinguish himself by taken the road rarely taken. The implications for gold and the USD are clear.

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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com

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Forex Trading - Forex Profit Farm can be the answer to trading successfully!

People struggle in Forex Trading! Thats a cold fact for 90% of traders in forex market. They struggle in making a single profitable trade, let alone making a good living. For most of the forex traders, the problem is not that they don't have commitment or money to spare. The problem is that they receive the systems from wrong hands(with that I mean fake Gurus)When you are going to get a system

Infrequent Nibbles

I'm getting into this small position size infrequent trading style.For example, with a pittance of my capital at risk I am earning nearly a 5% annual return. What am I trading? I'm holding the ever popular AUDJPY carry trade pair of course.Even with the recent wildfires in Australia I really don't see them falling off the map completely. Come on, realistically, how low can their dollar sink?

NZD-USD set for rally to 57c

The NZD has fallen to the USD50c support as expected. The current does however remain in a downtrend. There is no hope of a reprieve from commodity prices in the short term, but it is evident from the short term chart that there is scope for a rally to 57c before the currency resumes its downtrend (and short term traders can take profits). If you are buying NZ property, which can be very cheap outside the cities, then I would suggest you take the opportunity to exchange currency on this future weakness. NZ has one of the most flexible foreign investment regulations in the world. There are 3 ways you can make money from property:

1. Capital growth - through market price fluctuations
2. Rental income - long term or holiday rentals, perhaps whilst using it in the off-season
3. Foreign exchange exposure - by trading volatile movements in the NZD
4. Value-add through improvements - whether DIY or outsourced
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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com

Forex Profit Farm - Something incredible is coming!!

Forex Trading is about using trading strategy that is time tested and is easy to use. Not only should it be easy to understand, it should be easy to use as well.But the thing that is missing in most of the products in the market is that they don't work or they are incomplete. They leave too many questions unanswered.But there is something incredible coming in form of Forex Profit FarmA detailed

Not Enough Time To Trade

Well, my days have become very busy as of late. I go to work early, come home late, and need to get some sleep when I am not swamped with the normal day to day duties of life. I need time to cook and clean, pay the bills, service the car, look after my home, watch the superbowl, do laundry, and so on.While I've been making money I certainly am not making enough money to hire someone to look

Bold 2009 Prediction for You

Here's my bold prediction for you in 2009!

You will break your trading resolutions by the end of February.

• You will abandon your trading plan
• You will fall into the same destructive trading patterns you resolved to change
• Your account will earn the same or less than in 2008

I know this this sounds harsh, but statistically speaking, that's what will happen to most traders. So, are you going to let this happen to you?

True, statistics cover populations and not individual traders. The fact is, its traders who are outside of th enorm and trade with focused discipline that really achieve their financial goals. When is now the time to re-focus with discipline and dedication and really commit yourself to your trading plan?

Today is January 15, 2009 and February is just around the corner.

Let this be your wake-up call!

Be honest with yourself and focus with the discipline of a seasoned trader on staying true to your trading plan or risk becoming a statistic!

Happy "Disciplined" Trading!!

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Fundamental Conjecture

Something to keep in mind when you consider where the currency markets will be heading in 2009.It appears that the Obama stimulus package will contain a $250,000 write off for business expenses. This is huge. Smaller businesses, when generating expenses, are not generally spending their money outside of the US. Vehicles, machinery, tools, raw goods or whatever else is eligible for this tax

Trading A Longer Timeframe

FOREX RethinkThough I've been trading the AUDJPY on a 15m chart quite a bit, and with reasonable success, I am thinking about moving to a larger time frame. Well, to be accurate, it's not so much that I plan to use a different chart. What I really want to do is accumulate positions over a longer period of time.Do you know why?Because, if I can accumulate a bunch of positions that are at some

AUD carry trade back in play (Jan 09)

This Monday's trading signals a return to the carry trade. Last October (2008) Japanese and other fund managers abandoned the AUD, NZD and other high yielding currencies in favour of the safety of the USD and EUR. This week investors are re-entering the AUD in droves. In Oct-08 we saw the collapse of the carry trade, today we are witnessing its re-building.

Why you might ask would fund managers throw money back into commodity currencies? There are several reasons:
1. The vulnerability or exposure to low commodity prices has been priced in
2. The Australian economy will benefit from a low AUD since its commodity exports are priced in USD
3. The Australian economy produces a lot of food as well as minerals, and its now out of drought, and producing record harvests.
4. The interest swap trading AUD:JPY is still very good, and that will always be the case as long as the Australian economy retains its relative size and character to the Japanese economy.

A few weeks ago traders were saying that the carry trade was over. But in fact its a cycle more than a fling. It will always exist, if not the AUD it will be another currency. Interestingly the NZD is not responding as favourably as the AUD. The reason for this is likely to be the poor NZ current account deficit, currently running at 9% of GDP. mind you, that reluctance to buy NZD will be soon corrected. I think we will see the AUD strengthen quickly from Y65 to Y70 very quickly, so I recommend that trade, thereafter I would expect some bad news to curtail it in the short term.
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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com