I've signed up for a second account. This one is at a broker that uses a dealing desk and an MT4 based trading platform.Why?Because I write software for a living. Because I sometimes have a decided lack of discipline. Because my life is stressful and I don't need to be glued to my screen worrying about charts, margins and limits.No, really, it's because I'd like to think that I can create a
Thursday, 19 February 2009
Monday, 16 February 2009
AUD and NZD range trading at best
Labels: AUD, NZD, USDThe AUD and NZD are likely to range trade for the next month, as the focus is on the EUR trade. There is still some play in the Yen, as it falls to the Y83-85 on weaker economic news out of the USA. We are going to see a weaker USD, and that I don't see adding either weakness or strength to the AUD or NZD. I would nevertheless expect a volatile AUD trading between 58c and 70c.
The NZD is likely to trade between 50c and 60c. I don't see any reason for a fall at this point to its historical level of 40c in the short term, though I can see that as a possibility in the longer term. The John Keys government is shaping up as a disappointment. A swear the guy is the illegitimate child of John Howard the way he is running policy at the moment. He must have been stillborn for the last 2 decades because he has learnt nothing, and he is fully against the trend. Counter-cyclical or just stupid? You be the judge.
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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com
The USD set to plummet!
Posted by
FX
at
20:23
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The USD is set to plummet against a number of currencies. You might be thus wondering where to place your money. Against the gain currencies I would suggest the EURO offers the better opportunity. Some months ago I forecast the Yen falling to Y85. As you can see that move is almost complete, with the USD currently trading around Y90. At the time I attracted considerable criticism for this forecast. I would however expect the EUR-USD to offer far better trading however in the next 6 months.
The question is - Can we expect the USD to break Y83? I think if this were to occur we could be looking at the end of the USD as the international base currency. The question is - what would replace it? Clearly its not going to be the dysfunctional EUR, the distrusted Yuan, the disenfranchised Yen, and what of the worthless USD? Well, the implication is clear, its the USD or its a new global currency. Is it possible that the US debt profligacy was nothing more than a political statement by the US government. Was the US government thumbing its noses at mercantilist Japan and China and saying, SCREW YOU. By all means hold our USD debts as we are going to dilute the value of them. This is interesting times because we are looking at a global emergency, which can provide the justification for a strong USD (higher interest rates) or a new international currency. I would expect Obama to support higher interest rates in the spirit of former President Clinton. But then maybe he wants to distinguish himself by taken the road rarely taken. The implications for gold and the USD are clear.
The question is - Can we expect the USD to break Y83? I think if this were to occur we could be looking at the end of the USD as the international base currency. The question is - what would replace it? Clearly its not going to be the dysfunctional EUR, the distrusted Yuan, the disenfranchised Yen, and what of the worthless USD? Well, the implication is clear, its the USD or its a new global currency. Is it possible that the US debt profligacy was nothing more than a political statement by the US government. Was the US government thumbing its noses at mercantilist Japan and China and saying, SCREW YOU. By all means hold our USD debts as we are going to dilute the value of them. This is interesting times because we are looking at a global emergency, which can provide the justification for a strong USD (higher interest rates) or a new international currency. I would expect Obama to support higher interest rates in the spirit of former President Clinton. But then maybe he wants to distinguish himself by taken the road rarely taken. The implications for gold and the USD are clear.
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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com
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