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Labels: forex bullet proof, Forex Bulletproof, forex bulletproof bonus, forex bulletproof reviewSunday, 22 August 2010
USD set to strengthen against the Yen
Labels: JPY, USDThese are indeed interesting times. We can see from the following chart that the USD is close to reaching its historic low of 81.86 against the Japanese Yen. It seems destined to reach this level in order to give traders some sense of upside. It is a fait compli that the USD is going to weaken. Why?
Well the Japanese economy is not exactly in a strong position either. We can expect some stimulus in Japan to come in the form of mass-printing of Yen. This will of course stimulate some domestic demand, and probably even stronger property prices. It will not contribute to the real economy, however it will allow the government to balance its fiscal debt, which is of course owed to the Japanese people.
At the moment the yen is at a support level of 84.94-85.00. I would expect this to be breached, and for the currency to plummet to the 81.86 level, if only for a day. The implication is that traders ought to be looking to take a trade position here. This also makes a great opportunity for Japanese people to buy a house in the USA foreclosed market given the weak USD. It is not a bad time to sell your property in Japan if you are repatriating USDs, but to what end when the yields are so much better in Japan. There is not going to be any huge recovery in USD in the short term, however there is sufficient upside to consider selling investments like property, i.e. A recovery is possible, and it could be as high as 125 Yen. The deciding issues are going to be:
1. Japanese budget balance - The extent to which the government resorts to taxation vs printing money to resolve the domestic public sector debt
2. Your time line - the longer you wait, the greater prospect of a US recovery. The US is still absorbing all their surplus property stock and liquidating the related debts.
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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com
Flat EUR-USD currency market outlook
Posted by
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15:38
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The EUR can be expected to fall back weaken in the short term. It might sfind support around 1.24, or otherwise fall back to previous support at 1.1879. My position is the former proposition, and we can in the middle term expect a stronger EUR. Of course its all relative with the major currencies, as both governments and the Japanese engage in currency debasement.
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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com
The outlook for the AUD positive
Posted by
FX
at
15:22
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The Australian dollar is confronting several competing forces at the moment. In the short term there is the uncertainty of an unknown election result, even if it appears as if the Coalition will have the power in the House of Representatives, given that most of the Independent MPs are alligned to Liberal-National values.
The trading in the AUD suggests that the currency is close to breaking out to a new high, or set to fall to the old 80c support.
I am confident that once the election uncertainty has cleared we are going to see a stronger AUD. The reasons will be:
1. An end to the Emissions Trading Scheme
2. An end to the Mining Tax
3. Strong mineral export revenues
4. Strong business investment by the Chinese and Indians in coal & iron ore
The economy is currently bumping along with capital inflows of $3.5-4 billion per month. They are going to keep the AUD strong for the foreseeable future. The USD does not convey such strength, but the Chinese economy does. I see no reason to expect a slump in China, which is still benefiting from a great deal of stimulus. I can see upside for the AUD to as high as 98.38c, the previous high. I cannot see that support being broken in the medium term. It is probable that Australia will witness a recovery in domestic spending by that point. i.e. When Australians know they are on a good thing they go out with their credit cards in hand.
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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com
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