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Monday 1 March 2010

USD has short term upside, though consolidating

Monday 1 March 2010
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The USD is likely to experience some strength in the short term against the Yen. We can see in the chart that there is upside to 91.89. Thereafter I would expect it to preserve its consolidation for the next few months.
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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com

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Euro weakness in the short term

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The Euro is coming under pressure because of the Greek, Portuguese and Spanish economic fears. I don't see much of a problem with this exposure, but its weighing on the market. There is talk of a bail out. It seems probable that the Euro is falling back to 1.2492 support, though there is an interim support level at 1.2969 which will need to be tested.
The best outcome for the Eurozone would be for these 3 nations, as well as other Eastern European countries lacking in monetary and fiscal discipline to have their own currency, so the puritans in the north can define their own monetary identity. The Mediterranean countries can then peg their new currency to the price of red wine.
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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com

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Australian dollar has strong short term outlook

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Stronger commodity prices and a strong economy are likely to give short term confidence to the AUD. The currency is currency trading within an expanding envelope, which will eventually break down.
In this case we can look for resistance at the 90c mark in the short term, before rising to 92.44c level in the medium term. I would thereafter expect weakness in the AUD down to 84.58c.
The sustainability of the current strength in commodity prices is in question, though the currency will be buoyed by rising interest rates. I believe the currency will test the 84.58c level before it goes higher.
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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com

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