The AUD has been one of the strongest performing currencies this year, and there is no evidence of that changing soon. In fact there are good reasons why we can expect the AUD (currently at 0.86USD) to reach parity in the next 12 months. This is likely to occur on the back of strong export price settlements next year, which will likely coincide with a rise in the Reserve Bank's rate.
The $A is performing well because of the very favourable terms of trade, as the economy continues to benefit from strong export prices for mineral commodities, as well as an improving outlook for the farm sector. We can expect a breaking in the drought as well as higher global food commodity prices. On the domestic front, production capacity and labour markets are very tight, so there is every likelihood of strong business investment to lift productivity. A number of businesses and state governments have flagged the need for greater infrastructure spending. The long (100 bulk carriers) queues off Newcastle port are a testimony to the shortage of export capacity at Australian coal ports. Housing vacancy rates are also very tight, and whilst interest rate increases can be expected, there are several reasons why a strong AUD will be prompted by positive developments:
1. The stronger AUD will help reduce inflationary pressures - since imported items will be cheaper in AUD terms
2. The stronger will support alot of portfolio investment - particularly in mining and agriculture
3. The high levels of debt will discourage government from lifting interest rates significantly
4. Growth in incomes will fuel a 2nd rally in the property market
- Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com
The $A is performing well because of the very favourable terms of trade, as the economy continues to benefit from strong export prices for mineral commodities, as well as an improving outlook for the farm sector. We can expect a breaking in the drought as well as higher global food commodity prices. On the domestic front, production capacity and labour markets are very tight, so there is every likelihood of strong business investment to lift productivity. A number of businesses and state governments have flagged the need for greater infrastructure spending. The long (100 bulk carriers) queues off Newcastle port are a testimony to the shortage of export capacity at Australian coal ports. Housing vacancy rates are also very tight, and whilst interest rate increases can be expected, there are several reasons why a strong AUD will be prompted by positive developments:
1. The stronger AUD will help reduce inflationary pressures - since imported items will be cheaper in AUD terms
2. The stronger will support alot of portfolio investment - particularly in mining and agriculture
3. The high levels of debt will discourage government from lifting interest rates significantly
4. Growth in incomes will fuel a 2nd rally in the property market
- Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com
