Where Do We Go From Here?

Well, US non-farm payroll numbers where released, the market reacted and now all the traders have retired for the weekend. For the record, US non-farm payroll (NFP) rose by 121,000 in June. A figure I was personally watching this morning, the revision from May (which I thought was low) was revised from 75,000 to 92,000. Also, average hourly earnings increased to 0.5% from 0.1%, which to me reflect employers more willing to pay overtime than take on new employees.

No USD friendly numbers!

So, where do we go from here? I am not an expert on Forex fundamentals. I do, however, recognize the importance of fundamental analysis in maintaining and confirming the long-term technical view of the currency pairs I trade. Can the long awaiting sentiment change in the USD finally be upon us? Before you get comfortable in your range-trading strategies here are a few points to consider for your summer trading.

The Federal Reserve – My favorite people (ha, ha, not!). Will interest rates continue to rise or will Bernanke and crew take their collective foots of the economic breaks?

Economic News – Do the NFP numbers signal a slowing economy and can we expect trade balance to narrow and foreign capital flows into the US slow?

Energy - Will the EU spat with Russia over energy policy have a greater impact on the global economy? Will the North Atlantic hurricane season be as devistating as last year? With another rough season forecast, it is sure to spook investors!

World Politics - Will the geopolitical situation in Iran and now North Korea be another reversal factor? Will Afghanistan's reviving insurgency rival the intensity in Iraq?

I don’t know the answers, but as we progress in the month I am taking a keener interest in the fundamentals. I do declare myself a technical trader. I am looking for chart patterns, wave patterns and am still best friends with Mr. Fibonacci. However, I am learning to appreciate fundamentals more and more to the point where I now incorporate them as an additional confirmation in my trade plan.

Technicals are the rudder of the sail boat, but fundamentals deliver the wind to the sails!!

Happy Trading!!



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July USD Outlook

Here is what I see as a possible July USD Outlook

Possible end of tightening cycle
No Federal Reserve meeting – No interest rate
Q2 GDP will likely drop below 3% vice 5.3% in Q1
Wave 5 extension beginning EUR/USD and GBP/USD

July could be a rough month for the USD!

Forex and the Job

So you live in the western part of North America (I trade from Phoenix, Arizona) and you have discovered the power of trading the Forex market. Your passion runs so deep that almost instantly you are convinced that you want to do this full time. You get your requisite training and are ready to trade your live account. Just one problem … the job is keeps getting in the way!

Those of us who live in the Western part of the United States and Canada have a unique challenge when it comes to currency trading. Our time zones are not conducive to trading the European session and our window is small to trade the New York session before we must pack it up and hit the road. The Asian session is perfect timing, but not very active in the currencies rookies tend to focus on first.

I absolutely love trading the European session, but I am wasted the entire day from lack of sleep. I am very selective when I trade with London, because you ALWAYS want to be focused and on top of your game when trading!

Here are some simple recommendations to help you through your transition period.

1. Do Your Homework! This is valid with any trader, but for those of us who have a small window to trade peak hours need to be prepared to take advantage of any pips the market is offering up. This is really not a disadvantage. This can build and nurture a most profitable habit.

2. Go to Bed Earlier! It is very important to get your rest and trading in the Pacific Time zone requires an early wake up call to trade the London-New York overlap session. I awake 4:00 am pacific time to make sure I am awake and prepared when New York opens.

3. Develop a Solid Exercise Plan! I find when I am in decent condition I can get an additional 2 hours more of focused time out of my day. Those two hours I dedicate to making myself a better trader.

4. Find Your Trading Style! Synergize your trading style with your trading session. If you are like me and primarily trade from the 15-minute, 1-hour and 4-hour charts the European and New York sessions are my bread and butter. I use the Asian session to do my homework. If you are a position trader a whole new set of synergies come into play.


5. Be confident in your analysis. When I first started seriously trading currencies and juggling the job I found I had done my homework, planned an entry only to miss it because it occurred while I was in the middle of my mid-morning meeting. I learned very quickly to get comfortable with entry orders.

As you can see from these simple examples that becoming successful in currency trading requires two key elements…

Persistence will allow you to climb the learning curve and learn from your mistakes!
Change of mindset to not allow life to dictate the level of your currency trading success!

Happy Trading!!


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Conquer the Crash

A Book Review

“Conquer the Crash”
By Robert R. Prechter Jr.

If you have been trading the Forex market you will have no doubtlessly come across R.N. Elliott’s Wave theory. In this book Robert Prechter, President of Elliott Wave International, details a compelling economic theory using this wave analysis. Prechter walks us through a technical, social and fundamental analysis of past economic events in a manner for which prior wave analysis is not necessary. He is leading us toward a prediction of future economic events which will leave you staggering! His stunning conclusion of an upcoming economic downturn not seen since the Great Depression will leave you thinking not only of future planning, but also of current events. Warning aside, there are a myriad of strategies outlined in this book that, once deployed, can not only allow you to survive this economic apocalypse, but flourish despite the odds.

The blog is dedicated to Forex education. During major economic downturns your financial education will be the difference between prosperity and struggle. This is must reading for traders and investors alike!!

Click Here to obtain your copy of “Conquer the Crash” by Robert Prechter.


Click Here to preview the lastest Elliott Wave International Market Perspective.

Happy Trading!!

Learn online forex trade - A great trade by me on USD/CAD..Although...

Learn Online Forex Trading - I placed a great trade on USD/CAD..Although I ...Like I guessed in the last message, I was expecting the online forex trading market to wake up from the virtual sleep as FOMC rate decision was going to have significant impact on USD direction.Thats what happenned..The market moved by 100+ pips for each currency pair in which USD is involved. So, I made analysis of USD