Is It Bigger Than A Breadbox?

This was gold!Poulson, while trying to avoid questions about the exact size of a proposed stimulus package, answered "I don't want to play 'is it bigger than a breadbox?'"It's hard to say what the DOW (and hence the AUDJPY) is going to do with this. Obviously, it's better for the economy than not having incentives, so it must have some impact. It also shows the government is serious about the...

Finicky Forex Friday

Well, in a while the president will be talking about some type of economic stimulus package.The question is, will the market think this is meaningful?So far, the market is up a bit but moving sideways. I guess we are all waiting to see if anything important is going to come out of this.My guess is that the market will rise a bit before the details arrive, but then fall in disappointment when ...

Weaker USD-JPY in the short term

As we can see from the chart below we are looking at the USD felling to the JPY101.8 level in the short to medium term. The rationale for that is the more vulnerable US economy, the prospect for an Fed rate cut in the USD, and the unwinding of the carry trade. At some point in time the USD might fall through this support, but it remains strong for now. Longer term I think it depends on what Japan...

Range trading & consolidating in JPY-EUR

I actually dont forecast much variability in this cross-rate. I see both markets soft with global demand. The JPY will be strong because of the unwinding of the carry trade, but exports will be weak anyway with the US, though might hold up somewhat in Asia. So I largely see consolidation in this market. So expect range trading between JPY143-168.The promise of reform looks stronger in Europe at the...

New target for AUD-USD forex rate $US0.80

The AUD-USD has pulled back from its high of USD0.94 and is now trading at USD0.878. There are many factors working for and against the AUD - and I list the following:Strong AUD arguments1. There are alot of investments in commodities already in the pipeline that will feed through to higher commodity sales - albeit at higher prices. Bulk commodity prices (iron ore, coal) are locked in until Apr'08....

Thursday's Bernanke Dive

Well, as per my previous post, Bernanke maintains his negative signal status.I'm happy to say I was trading the AUDJPY downwards today. I don't usually trade the downside, as I don't like the chance of being caught in a negative interest income position, but with Bernanke on the microphone, I just couldn't resist.I also had some very well behaving trend lines on the 1hr and the 5min charts....

The Bernanke Signal

If you haven't noticed, Bernanke has turned into a Forex signal.The market will rise, anticipating that he'll say something useful, or helpful, but then he actually starts speaking and we get a precipitous drop in prices.Of course, when rate cuts are announced we will get a momentary spike, but it will only be lasting if the rate cuts are deeper than the market has already built into prices.Keep...

Fundamental Forex Guesswork

Okay, so during the NY trading session today I did manage to get some AUDJPY positions protected under a stop loss.What I'm hoping, and I'll try to convince myself via fundamental issues, is that the foreign markets will rise based on US news. You see, the US economy came out luke warm today. Inflation didn't seem to be a big issue and various sectors were weak, but nothing was...

Buying AUDJPY Under 94.00

I don't know about anyone else, but I'm excited to get my hands on the AUDJPY at current rates.At the risk of repeating myself, since most visitors are new visitors, this is a great time to acquire small positions, building size as they become profitable and have been protected with stop losses.Though it isn't easy, I've been working at bringing down positions that were purchased above current...

Turbulent Tuesday - AUDJPY Opportunities

I was on the road today, so I didn't have to witness the inevitable slide in the AUDJPY as the DOW searched for it's navel.However, I was back in my technology haven in time to notice the AUDJPY bouncing off the 93.80 resistance point.I don't know if we'll be on our way further down, but we are getting to historically depressed levels. Now, what to do. I'm putting in a little bit here, with ...

Why the Fed is such a Lousy Wizard of Oz

Another interesting articles from my friends over at Elliottwave.********************************Why the Fed is Such a Lousy Wizard of OzBy Susan C. Walker, Elliott Wave InternationalSeptember 7, 2007 Central bankers who "follow the yellow brick road" end up in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, every Labor Day weekend for their annual symposium sponsored by – who else? – the Kansas City Fed. (Who can forget...

Sunday Forex Reflections

Today I am wondering if I'm trying to do this the hard way.Trading the AUDJPY is pretty perilous. There are all kinds of stock market driven perturbations that make the price gyrate around in a mad frenzy. This makes it difficult to get some funds into the market without risking some massive continued downturn.If you don't take your profits when they are presented, you risk seeing your profit...