The NZD is languishing at new lows of 49.5c to the USD. The question is - will it fall further to 40c, the hostoric low last reached in 2003 if I am not mistaken. At that time NZ was battling a bad current account deficit, much like today, and like today it was contending with a low commodity price outlook. In this context, one might expect the NZD to fall to 40c. The problem I have with this scenario is the weak outlook for the US economy. I am thinking we can expect a lot of monetary inflation in the US, but we might also expect some taxes on the rich and an energy tax. We need to remember that any slowdown is going to demand the government to raise taxes since Bush was engaged in tax reductions, now we are looking at tax increases.The weak NZD is going to be a saviour for the NZ economy, and the prospect of NZ expatriates returning from abroad cashed up from offshore earnings is going to offer a stimulus of its own. I suspect a few Europeans and Americans might also be considering retirement in NZ, and some families will be changing their priorities, and deciding emigrating to NZ means more times for the kids. These are the dynamics which move a small nation like NZ. Falling NZ interest rates however suggest that we might just see the NZD move to 40c. As per normal, we should watch the market for some direction. Certainly the falls in equities are reason to think the NZD is not going to be a growth currency for some time. But perhaps you might consider buying property in NZ at this time. Economic malaise creates the best possible setting for contrarian investments. You can buy a house in NZ for as little as $NZ68,000 (USD35,000). This is a natural move for retirees, intellectuals, programmers and international explorers. In 5 years you will be able to sell any property investment at a higher exchange rate. More info here. Chart updates from Yahoo Finance.
----------------------------------------------Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com
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