The AUD has been absolutely hit in the last few months, falling from a high of $US0.985, just short of parity to $US0.6995 in recent days. The currency has since recovered to 0.714. The question is - Is this the bottom? The market talk is that the Australian government, having lead the central bank cuts with 1%, might be looking at another 1% in future. In fact the ECB and Fed are taking the same direction. As long as asset prices are falling there is no possibility of stimulus. The flipside of that is that interest rates are ineffective as a basis for stimulating the economy. if asset prices are falling because people buy generally when they think prices are going to rise. Asset prices will keep falling for as long as people think they are overpriced. The market talk is that property prices need to fall another 25% in Western markets.
The argument is - Is the carry trade over? No, not for years yet I suspect. Until the Japanese government decides to adopt some fiscal courage there is no possibility of the Japanese central bank raising rates. The unwinding of the carry trade has brought the AUD down, but watch as people jump back on board that boat. This is why the currency is so volatile. Traders are going to trade it back up again.
The next question is - What is the bottom for the AUD? The AUD did hit a support at 0.704 and recover, though I would not be surprised to see it test $0.678 in the next two days. Certainly your trades should reflect that possibility. This is a sweet opportunity to buy AUD. The Australian economy is among the most healthy.
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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com
The argument is - Is the carry trade over? No, not for years yet I suspect. Until the Japanese government decides to adopt some fiscal courage there is no possibility of the Japanese central bank raising rates. The unwinding of the carry trade has brought the AUD down, but watch as people jump back on board that boat. This is why the currency is so volatile. Traders are going to trade it back up again.
The next question is - What is the bottom for the AUD? The AUD did hit a support at 0.704 and recover, though I would not be surprised to see it test $0.678 in the next two days. Certainly your trades should reflect that possibility. This is a sweet opportunity to buy AUD. The Australian economy is among the most healthy.
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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com
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