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Friday 18 April 2008

USD-JPY still Y85-bound

Friday 18 April 2008
The chart attached shows the USD staging something of a recovery against the JPY. I see this as a short term recovery. So short term in fact that I think as we go into today's trading I am expecting the USD will be sold off. Why? Because the USD has retraced to the previous resistance level it breached. The next major support is Y85. It will go to that level because the market knows that in an election year the US government & Federal Reserve will be pulling out all stops to win the next election. It wont happen. Americans are waking up to themselves, and their cholesterol-free, low-sugar diets, and will have a reality check. So we are looking at a further 15% fall in the USD-JPY, which on top of a 8% rise in the EUR-USD, suggests we should be looking at a 7% strengthening in the EUR-JPY over the corresponding period, just as an arbitrary.
So watch tonight as the USD is sold off, and that will set the scene for next week. Strong gold week.
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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com

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