The USD has been strong, though it remains to be seen if it will break 108.2. I think not given the weakness in the market. I think the Fed will lean towards a rate cut rather than concerns about inflation. Its first priority will be growth, and whilst it might talk about raising rates to deal with inflation, the reality is that most of the money supply imbalance will be corrected by insolvencies and reduced speculation (debt liquidation) rather than interest rate increases. Why? Because the Fed will be taking its time to raise rates. It will talk about it but the reality is - the economy always gets primacy. The case for this is stronger close to an election -even if Bernacke suggests otherwise. The notion that the Fed is independent is a crock. We just need a fall below Y105 to correct market perceptions.
